Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 138,323
2 South Dakota 136,338
3 Rhode Island 135,685
4 Utah 122,176
5 Tennessee 119,312
6 Arizona 117,017
7 Iowa 113,744
8 Oklahoma 112,356
9 Wisconsin 111,532
10 Nebraska 111,455
11 Arkansas 110,328
12 South Carolina 109,933
13 New Jersey 108,914
14 Alabama 106,298
15 Kansas 105,595
16 Indiana 104,964
17 Mississippi 103,664
18 Idaho 103,331
19 Delaware 102,606
20 Illinois 102,293
21 New York 101,708
22 Nevada 100,548
23 Montana 100,054
24 Florida 100,031
25 Georgia 99,458
26 Wyoming 98,837
27 Kentucky 98,306
28 Texas 98,102
29 Minnesota 97,507
30 Louisiana 97,116
31 Missouri 96,884
32 Massachusetts 96,781
33 California 93,935
34 New Mexico 92,809
35 Connecticut 91,998
36 North Carolina 90,359
37 Ohio 89,665
38 Alaska 89,127
39 Michigan 85,848
40 Pennsylvania 85,816
41 Colorado 84,767
42 West Virginia 82,357
43 Virginia 75,171
44 Maryland 71,452
45 New Hampshire 66,576
46 District of Columbia 65,625
47 Washington 50,421
48 Puerto Rico 47,766
49 Maine 41,625
50 Oregon 41,001
51 Vermont 34,718
52 Hawaii 22,132

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 891
2 Rhode Island 831
3 Pennsylvania 458
4 New Jersey 429
5 Maine 420
6 Florida 350
7 Minnesota 341
8 Delaware 338
9 Colorado 328
10 Connecticut 320
11 New Hampshire 317
12 New York 308
13 Massachusetts 288
14 Illinois 275
15 South Dakota 271
16 Puerto Rico 266
17 North Dakota 250
18 Alaska 248
19 Maryland 224
20 Tennessee 216
21 West Virginia 210
22 North Carolina 206
23 Vermont 199
24 District of Columbia 194
25 Ohio 191
26 Virginia 186
27 Wisconsin 183
28 Montana 179
29 Iowa 177
30 Kentucky 177
31 Indiana 174
32 Nebraska 169
33 South Carolina 167
34 Georgia 159
35 Oregon 157
36 Idaho 153
37 Washington 148
38 Nevada 145
39 Alabama 144
40 Utah 139
41 Texas 134
42 Wyoming 123
43 Missouri 121
44 Louisiana 118
45 Mississippi 112
46 New Mexico 98
47 Arkansas 80
48 Kansas 72
49 Arizona 68
50 Oklahoma 68
51 California 62
52 Hawaii 52

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,818
2 New York 2,617
3 Massachusetts 2,529
4 Rhode Island 2,497
5 Mississippi 2,394
6 Arizona 2,352
7 Connecticut 2,241
8 Louisiana 2,209
9 South Dakota 2,203
10 Alabama 2,189
11 Pennsylvania 2,001
12 North Dakota 1,976
13 Indiana 1,959
14 New Mexico 1,907
15 Illinois 1,885
16 Arkansas 1,884
17 Iowa 1,860
18 South Carolina 1,807
19 Georgia 1,794
20 Michigan 1,782
21 Tennessee 1,748
22 Nevada 1,739
23 Texas 1,710
24 Kansas 1,697
25 Oklahoma 1,692
26 Delaware 1,637
27 Ohio 1,618
28 Florida 1,594
29 West Virginia 1,546
30 District of Columbia 1,544
31 California 1,538
32 Missouri 1,483
33 Kentucky 1,433
34 Montana 1,429
35 Maryland 1,407
36 Wisconsin 1,271
37 Minnesota 1,253
38 Virginia 1,233
39 Wyoming 1,214
40 Nebraska 1,203
41 North Carolina 1,180
42 Idaho 1,128
43 Colorado 1,096
44 New Hampshire 929
45 Washington 710
46 Puerto Rico 684
47 Utah 674
48 Oregon 584
49 Maine 563
50 Alaska 434
51 Vermont 384
52 Hawaii 331

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Alaska 8
2 Michigan 8
3 Colorado 6
4 Missouri 5
5 New Jersey 5
6 West Virginia 5
7 Delaware 4
8 Georgia 4
9 Pennsylvania 4
10 Connecticut 3
11 Kentucky 3
12 Mississippi 3
13 New York 3
14 Vermont 3
15 Arkansas 2
16 California 2
17 District of Columbia 2
18 Florida 2
19 Idaho 2
20 Illinois 2
21 Indiana 2
22 Louisiana 2
23 Maryland 2
24 Nevada 2
25 New Mexico 2
26 North Carolina 2
27 Ohio 2
28 Oklahoma 2
29 Puerto Rico 2
30 Rhode Island 2
31 South Carolina 2
32 Texas 2
33 Alabama 1
34 Arizona 1
35 Iowa 1
36 Kansas 1
37 Maine 1
38 Massachusetts 1
39 Minnesota 1
40 New Hampshire 1
41 North Dakota 1
42 Tennessee 1
43 Virginia 1
44 Washington 1
45 Wisconsin 1
46 Wyoming 1
47 Hawaii 0
48 Montana 0
49 Nebraska 0
50 Oregon 0
51 South Dakota 0
52 Utah 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 355,387 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 345,925 2 99
Bent Colorado 266,631 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 245,927 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 244,856 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 138,741 194 93
Richland South Carolina 108,079 1014 67
York South Carolina 105,239 1143 63
Orange California 84,587 2109 32
Pierce Washington 50,123 2893 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Gove Kansas 8,346 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,533 1786 43
Davidson Tennessee 1,331 2025 35
York South Carolina 1,313 2046 34
Richland South Carolina 1,292 2078 33
Pierce Washington 694 2722 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons